Sunday, July 13, 2008

Minnesota '08

Chris Palko at The reports in The Big Ten Strategy: Minnesota of the chance Senator McCain has in turning this Blue state Red...

"By virtue of voting for native son Walter Mondale in 1984, Minnesota has the longest streak of voting Democratic in presidential elections. It last voted for a Republican in 1972, when George McGovern was too extreme for this historically liberal state. Despite this, Minnesota is not the Massachusetts of the Midwest. Instead, it is now what Illinois once was; a key Midwestern state dominated by a big city where the suburbs make the difference. In 2000, Bush got within two points of winning the state, assisted by a strong Nader vote (5.25%). Four years later, Bush was able to increase his percentage of the vote by two points. But with liberals wary of voting for Nader again, John Kerry was also able to increase the Democratic share of the vote by over three points. Bush fell 3.5 points short of victory.

In this election cycle, there are two wild cards associated with Minnesota. The first of which is the Republican National Convention being held in St. Paul. The GOP has held its last two conventions deep in the heart of Blue America, Philadelphia and New York. While the city of St. Paul is Democratic, there could be greater potential for a positive convention changing the mind of some locals. If you live in the Twin Cities, you will have a constant media drumbeat about the convention. This is a major form of political advertising, which could benefit Republicans."

For Full article - The Big Ten Strategy: Minnesota

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