Monday, July 28, 2008

100 Days Out

Senators McCain and Obama are back to within 3 points in Rasmussen's latest daily tracking poll, but even more interesting is the fact that Americans are more upbeat than they have been in 4 years about the War on Terror and the Iraqi Front.
But for McCain and other beleaguered Republicans, at least there was good news on the war front. Over half of Americans now believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, the most upbeat assessment Rasmussen Reports has recorded in nearly four years.

I also note that Senator Obama is more trusted at or beyond the margin of error in 5 of the 14 top issues, healthcare, the environment, trade, ethics, and education. Senator McCain is more trusted on 5 issues as well, Iraq, national security, abortion, immigration, and taxes. They are in a statistical tie on the economy, energy, balancing the budget, and Social Security.

The VP sweepstakes is interesting. Mike Huckabee is the most popular choice for McCain followed by Joe Lieberman, yet most people think he will choose Mitt Romney who polls show may flip Michigan. Edwards and Clinton lead the public's view of who would be the best choice for Senator Obama. Governor Tom Kaine of Virginia could flip that state even though he only shows 21% in the national polls.

Conventional wisdom has not been too wise this year. These polling numbers reinforce a simple truth. You should go out and vote your conscience. Don't let people tell you the election is predetermined. The Congressional numbers show Republicans are gaining on most issues and Democrats have lost their lead on 3 out of the 10 big issues and lost ground on most of the others. The Generic ballot has closed for 5 week in a row and some of the Senate races have tightened up. The new generic number will be out Tuesday. Things could change but this is not shaping to be a wipe out for either party.

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