Sunday, June 15, 2008

"Inside the Numbers: The Latest Polls"

A very promising report given at

"John McCain continues to defy expectations. We all (pollsters, pundits and campaign leadership) were braced for a Barack Obama bounce -- like a pretty big one. The great news: it hasn’t really materialized, not yet anyway. Yes, he’s seen a bounce -- daily tracking polls show him up around 6-points -- but that’s a far cry from the hype that many of our friends on cable news had been selling.

And, two major polls released in the past 24 hours are full of good news for the campaign -- Diageo/Hotline shows Senator McCain trailing by 2 points overall, but we lead by 10 points with independents. WSJ/NBC shows Senator McCain trailing by 6 points, but the same poll shows Senator McCain has big leads with suburban women and white men.

And, the rest of the WSJ/NBC survey shows some interesting stuff. It shows Senator McCain leading on some important characteristics. Voters see McCain as: knowledgeable and experienced enough to be president (64% rate McCain as a “4” or “5”, 30% rate Obama a “4” or “5” on the same characteristic); being a good commander in chief (52% rate McCain a “4” or “5” and 33% rate Obama a “4” or “5”); and having strong leadership qualities (63% rate McCain a “4” or “5” and 57% rate Obama a “4” or “5”).

And, both major surveys released today show Senator McCain continuing to overperform the generic ballot and the challenging political environment.

If the Obama bump is short lived, Senator McCain’s strengths will remain strong anchors in the data."

No comments: