Saturday, June 7, 2008

I am late for my own funeral and other observations.

Senator Clinton running late for the endorsement rally in which she endorsed Senator Obama seemed like someone being late for her own funeral. I don't know that it helps her chances to be revived by being on the ticket.

I think this year could be determined by voter turnout not traditional polling measures just as 2004 was. The special elections show Republicans are dispirited. That can change. Democrats are exuberant. That can change. According to Rasmussen Polling, party identification favors the Democrats by 10 points among likely voters today. That tends to suggest that the ticket which could excite Democrats the most Obama/Clinton would be the logical choice. Fortunately, Senator Obama is rumored to be letting advisers convince him that he doesn't need her. If the excitement level of Democrats falls by just 3 points, McCain wins and the senate remains close. The Republicans will hold their margins and may pick up a couple of house seats. If it rises, the opposite may happen and it may become a blowout for team Obama.

What is more interesting is the battleground state strategy being deployed by Senator Obama. They are targeting 25 states including CO, MS, VA, GA, and NC. Colorado is somewhat possible, but it has been 40 years since the Democrats have had much luck in the other states (GA did go for Carter and Clinton in 1992). It seems like either a bold strategy to remake the electoral map or a rookie mistake which may divert resources from the states he can really win. It could be a mistake on par with the Rudy big state strategy. We shall see.

No comments: