Tuesday, August 5, 2008

It's Energy--Stupid

Energy is the big issue in America. The bad news for Senator Obama is that more Americans now trust Senator McCain on the issue. The Obama people have gotten the message and the Senator has made a major address today on the issue. The race is a dead heat. For the first time since June 3, Rasmussen reports Senator McCain is in the lead among leaners, but it is statistically insignificant. Senator Obama's dollar bill remark hurt his favorability ratings, they are down to 51% from a 54 to 57% range. The majority viewed the remark as racist, including a stunning 44% of African Americans, which seems rather strong. Racial would seem more accurate. It seems 44 years after legal segregation was ended, the subject of race is still a sensative issue in America.

Americans are skeptical of a windfall profits tax because they know it won't produce more energy, just hurt stockholders (which are themselves). It has the support of 2/3's of Democrats but is rejected by everyone else. Americans also don't believe it is realistic to say that we will replace oil in the next 10 years. The all of the above approach has majority support. Drill, nuclear, wind, and new alternatives all have majority support.

The Republicans are now gaining momentum in the Senate races. The long shot that the Democrats will gain 8 or 9 senate seats seems off the table. 2 to 5 seems more likely now. Virginia and New Mexico look like good Democrat pick ups. Alaska isn't looking great right now either for Republicans, but the primary later this month could change that dynamic. New Hampshire is closing to within a few points. If Sununu can keep hammering the energy issue, he could cheat the the Democratic trend in New Hampshire. Now that Governor Ventura has decided not to run Norm Coleman looks as if he may hold on to the Senate seat. The Republicans have pulled ahead in a Democrat seat in LA and are an outside shot in NJ, but the Democrats can concentrate their resources to hold those seats.

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