Polling Bad News for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (Arkansas)

by Bill Smith: When polling numbers shows a senior senator in difficulty against potential candidates over a year out from the election, the news is bad news for that senator. And that is what is being projected for Arkansas' U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln who is up for election in 2010 and has been feverishly raising funds and avoiding the public at town halls and TEA Parties in Arkansas. Public Policy Polling latest polling data released August 26th shows that Obama campaigning for Sen. Lincoln in in Arkansas would sink her race. While Barack Obama's National approval rating of 52%, in Arkansas, Obama has only a 40% approval rating. And that is expected to continue to fall in Arkansas. In fact, the polling numbers showed that a majority of voters in Arkansas think Rush Limbaugh has a superior vision for the country than Barack Obama.

Blanche Lincoln's approval rating has dropped 9% since March.  Currently, Lincoln has 36% approval rating and a 44% disapproving rating of the job she’s doing. Currently, with no candidates formally filed for office against her, she's in a statistical tie against three potential Republican opponents. And there are as many as eight candidates considering running against her.

Gilbert Baker leads her 42-40, Curtis Coleman has a 41-40 advantage, and Tom Cotton trails Lincoln slightly 40-39. The numbers of course are more a reflection on Lincoln's unfavorable standing than that of the Republicans at this time.

“You couldn’t get a clearer indication that the national momentum is with Republicans right now than a poll showing some guys with single digit name recognition running even with an incumbent Senator,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is going to be a very closely contested race if the eventual Republican nominee does a good job of raising money.

Other indicators of running against Lincoln is that 53% of the people polled were women. In addition, 48% of those polled identified themselves as conservative, and 39% as moderate, leaving 12% of her liberal friends. At the beginning of 2009, voters returned Senator Pryor to a new six term without opposition; however, , his approval rating, although higher than Lincoln, is now only 47% with a disapproval rating of 32%. The voters disappointment with a previously considered "more conservative" Sen. Pryor may weigh heavily on voters in 2010 when considering returning a more liberal Senator Blanche Lincoln .

There is a growing "vote the bums" out feeling among the voters in Arkansas. Also, in Arkansas, continued open endorsement and support of Senator Lincoln by incumbent State constitutional officers (Governor, Lt. Governor, etc.) may place them at risk in 2010 if viable conservative candidates step forward to oppose them.

As summarized by Tom Jensen, Public Policy Polling, "Clearly Lincoln could be beaten, but there are several reasons why she might survive too. The first is that none of her potential Republican opponents have shown the ability yet to raise the money to run a strong campaign. Whoever emerges as her opponent is also going to need to be able to keep their foot out of their mouth, something that's been a problem for some potential foes. The second is that Democrats nationally are in a recession right now and that goes a long way toward explaining these numbers.. . . Republicans have an opportunity here but it remains to be seen whether they can take advantage of it."

John McCain leads Barack Obama in Arkansas

ARRA News Service - Rasmussen Reports: John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama in Arkansas remains stable. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Republican leading 51% to 42%. McCain had a 10-point lead in July and was ahead by nine points in June. . . . This month, McCain leads 56% to 31% among unaffiliated voters in Arkansas. He also has a 53% to 40% advantage among men and a 50% to 43% edge among women.

McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of voters and unfavorably by 38%. Obama’s ratings are 47% favorable, 52% unfavorable. Rasmussen Markets [as of this report] data gives McCain a 86.0% chance of carrying Arkansas this fall. . . .

Obama’s running mate, Joseph Biden, is viewed favorably by 44% of Arkansas voters and unfavorably by 49%. Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 58% and unfavorably by 39%. Voters in Arkansas think McCain made the right choice with Palin by a 56% to 34% margin. They disagree with Obama’s choice of Biden 49% to 27%. A plurality of voters (43%) considers Palin to be very conservative. Just 17% of voters see Biden as very liberal, while 28% view the Democrat as politically moderate. . . . [McCain Maintains Solid Lead in Arkansas ]

John McCain Gains Strength in Polls

Bill Smith, ARRA Editor: A Zogby poll released today depicts John McCain leading Barack Obama among likely voters by 46 to 41% which removes the prior month's seven-point advantage for Obama. Also, a Los Angeles Times-Bloomberg poll that gave Mr Obama a 12-point lead in June found that the McCain and Obama were statistically tied. RealClearPolitics average of polls has McCain trailing by less than 2% and in today's electoral college match up with no toss-up states has McCain winning the electoral votes for the first time (see image)

American voters will soon be focusing on the DNC 2008 in Denver and Obama's selection of his vice presidential running mate. McCain is expected to select his vice presidential running mate immediately after the DNC and American voters will then shift their focus to the RNC 2008 in St Paul. Therefore, we can expect the polls to flex a lot in the coming days. However, the current polling results may evidence that Americans have taken notice of Obama's significance lack of experience which calls into question his ability to address national and global issues. They may be admitting that novelty is not necessarily a better choice over proven experience.

Voters have noted McCain's ability to address critical issues and to take clear positions while having a willingness to adapt over time to changes in positions due to changing national or global needs. Most likely voters are sharing with pollsters that McCain would be the better choice for president of the United States for the next four years. Obviously, the candidates' choices of their vice presidential running mates will be critically evaluated by voters. But, vice presidents are NOT presidents but presidents in waiting. And, America has proven in the past its willingness to select someone other that a former vice president or even former president to be their next president of the United States.

Many Americans, both Democrats and Republicans, did not like former president "give 'em hell" Harry Truman. However, they knew that Truman understood that he was responsible for the leadership of America and for making difficult decisions unthinkable to them. As Truman said, the "Buck Stops Here." He understood his leadership responsibility. Whereas, the recent words by Sen. Obama that some issues are "above his pay grade" evidences that he is not ready to lead with competence and convictions and may be easily swayed by politics and others when America needs a man of conviction. Hopefully, American is awakening from a period of game show electioneering picking the next "American Idol" to electing the best person to lead and protect America as the President of the Unites States.